The transportation risk assessment estimates the health effects, in terms of annual fatalities, from the transportation of plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU) for each programmatic environmental impact statement (PEIS) alternative. For this assessment, the PEIS alternatives can be described as combinations of pit fabrication, secondary and case fabrication, and assembly/disassembly (A/D) sites. The potential sites for these functions are:
In addition, the sites considered for the storage of the strategic reserve of plutonium and HEU and the tritium recycling site were considered in the analysis for estimating risk. The strategic reserve of plutonium and HEU could be located at six potential sites: Hanford, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), NTS, ORR, Pantex, or SRS. Two of these sites, NTS and Pantex, are considered by the Stockpile Stewardship and Management PEIS due to the assumption that storage of the strategic reserve in the form of pits and secondaries would be collocated at the weapons A/D sites. The other four sites are being considered by the Storage and Disposition of Weapons-Usable Fissile Materials Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0229-D, February 1996) for consolidated storage of all plutonium and uranium. Tritium recycling would remain at SRS. All of the alternatives are shown in table G.1-1.
For each of the special nuclear materials and radioactive materials involved, the radiological risk calculations were performed using the RADTRAN Version 4 computer code, developed and maintained by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) at Albuquerque, NM (RADTRAN 4: Volume 3 User Guide [SAND89-2370, January 1992]).
The RADTRAN code combines user-determined demographic, transportation, packaging, and material factors with health physics data to calculate the expected radiological consequences of accident-free and accident risk from transporting radioactive material.
For performing the calculations, plutonium and HEU would be transported via Department of Energy's (DOE) safe secure trailers. Tritium would be transported by DOE's contract air carrier. The packaging types and the number of packages per shipment would be in accordance with regulatory requirements.
For this analysis, the isotopic composition was assumed to be 93 percent uranium-235 for HEU shipments and 100 percent tritium for tritium shipments. Plutonium was assumed to be weapons-grade material.
The transport index is a regulatory characteristic of a package and is equal to the radiation dose rate in millirem per hour at a distance of 1 meter (m) (3.3 feet [ft]) from the outside of the package. The transport index values were estimated to be the maximum allowed by regulatory checks incorporated in RADTRAN. These regulatory checks limit the product of the number of packages and the transport index of each package to a value of about 16. The quantity of material per package, number of packages per truckload, and number of truckloads per year were estimated.
| Health Effects1 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative | Pit Fabrication Site | Secondary and Case Fabrication Site | Plutonium Storage Site | HEU Storage Site | Tritium Recycling Site | Accident | Accident- Free | Total |
| No Action | LANL (limited) | ORR | Pantex | ORR | SRS | 2.57x10 -3 | 7.64x10 -4 | 3.33x10 -3 |
| Assembly/Disassembly at NTS | LANL | ORR | NTS | ORR | SRS | 4.78x10 -3 | 1.34x10 -3 | 6.12x10 -3 |
| LANL | ORR | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 6.47x10 -3 | 1.87x10 -3 | 8.34x10 -3 | |
| LANL | ORR | ORR | ORR | SRS | 5.30x10 -3 | 1.51x10 -3 | 6.81x10 -3 | |
| LANL | ORR | NTS | NTS | SRS | 8.44x10 -3 | 2.39x10 -3 | 0.0108 | |
| LANL | ORR | SRS | SRS | SRS | 6.00x10 -3 | 1.76x10 -3 | 7.76x10 -3 | |
| LANL | ORR | INEL | INEL | SRS | 8.76x10 -3 | 2.52x10 -3 | 0.0113 | |
| LANL | ORR | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 9.88x10 -3 | 2.84x10 -3 | 0.0127 | |
| SRS | ORR | NTS | ORR | SRS | 7.03x10 -3 | 2.03x10 -3 | 9.06x10 -3 | |
| SRS | ORR | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 8.26x10 -3 | 2.44x10 -3 | 0.0107 | |
| SRS | ORR | ORR | ORR | SRS | 5.55x10 -3 | 1.61x10 -3 | 7.16x10 -3 | |
| SRS | ORR | NTS | NTS | SRS | 1.07x10 -2 | 3.07x10 -3 | 0.0138 | |
| SRS | ORR | SRS | SRS | SRS | 5.87x10 -3 | 1.70x10 -3 | 7.57x10 -3 | |
| SRS | ORR | INEL | INEL | SRS | 1.08x10 -2 | 3.15x10 -3 | 0.0139 | |
| SRS | ORR | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 1.19x10 -2 | 3.49x10 -3 | 0.0154 | |
| LANL | LANL | NTS | NTS | SRS | 3.87x10 -3 | 1.02x10 -3 | 4.89x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LANL | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 3.06x10 -3 | 8.06x10 -4 | 3.87x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LANL | ORR | ORR | SRS | 5.67x10 -3 | 1.61x10 -3 | 7.28x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LANL | SRS | SRS | SRS | 6.39x10 -3 | 1.85x10 -3 | 8.24x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LANL | INEL | INEL | SRS | 4.80x10 -3 | 1.25x10 -3 | 6.05x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LANL | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 5.91x10 -3 | 1.59x10 -3 | 7.50x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | NTS | NTS | SRS | 6.13x10 -3 | 1.70x10 -3 | 7.83x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 4.84x10 -3 | 1.37x10 -3 | 6.21x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | ORR | ORR | SRS | 5.93x10 -3 | 1.71x10 -3 | 7.64x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | SRS | SRS | SRS | 6.23x10 -3 | 1.81x10 -3 | 8.04x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | INEL | INEL | SRS | 6.80x10 -3 | 1.90x10 -3 | 8.70x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 7.92x10 -3 | 2.23x10 -3 | 0.0102 | |
| LANL | LLNL | NTS | NTS | SRS | 3.58x10 -3 | 1.08x10 -3 | 4.66x10 -3 | |
| Assembly/Disassembly at NTS (Continued) | LANL | LLNL | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 4.76x10 -3 | 1.39x10 -3 | 6.15x10 -3 |
| LANL | LLNL | ORR | ORR | SRS | 7.43x10 -3 | 2.21x10 -3 | 9.64x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LLNL | SRS | SRS | SRS | 8.16x10 -3 | 2.44x10 -3 | 0.0106 | |
| LANL | LLNL | INEL | INEL | SRS | 4.40x10 -3 | 1.25x10 -3 | 5.65x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LLNL | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 4.52x10 -3 | 1.38x10 -3 | 5.90x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LLNL | NTS | NTS | SRS | 5.83x10 -3 | 1.77x10 -3 | 7.60x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LLNL | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 6.54x10 -3 | 1.96x10 -3 | 8.50x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LLNL | ORR | ORR | SRS | 7.68x10 -3 | 2.32x10 -3 | 0.0100 | |
| SRS | LLNL | SRS | SRS | SRS | 8.00x10 -3 | 2.39x10 -3 | 0.0104 | |
| SRS | LLNL | INEL | INEL | SRS | 6.40x10 -3 | 1.89x10 -3 | 8.29x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LLNL | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 6.53x10 -3 | 2.02x10 -3 | 8.55x10 -3 | |
| Assembly/Disassembly at Pantex | LANL | ORR | Pantex | ORR | SRS | 2.57x10 -3 | 7.64x10 -4 | 3.33x10 -3 |
| LANL | ORR | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 4.49x10 -3 | 1.36x10 -3 | 5.85x10 -3 | |
| LANL | ORR | ORR | ORR | SRS | 3.32x10 -3 | 9.94x10 -4 | 4.31x10 -3 | |
| LANL | ORR | NTS | NTS | SRS | 6.47x10 -3 | 1.88x10 -3 | 8.34x10 -3 | |
| LANL | ORR | SRS | SRS | SRS | 4.03x10 -3 | 1.23x10 -3 | 5.26x10 -3 | |
| LANL | ORR | INEL | INEL | SRS | 6.78x10 -3 | 2.00x10 -3 | 8.78x10 -3 | |
| LANL | ORR | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 7.90x10 -3 | 2.28x10 -3 | 0.0102 | |
| SRS | ORR | Pantex | ORR | SRS | 3.89x10 -3 | 1.20x10 -3 | 5.09x10 -3 | |
| SRS | ORR | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 5.80x10 -3 | 1.80x10 -3 | 7.60x10 -3 | |
| SRS | ORR | ORR | ORR | SRS | 3.10x10 -3 | 9.67x10 -4 | 4.07x10 -3 | |
| SRS | ORR | NTS | NTS | SRS | 8.26x10 -3 | 2.44x10 -3 | 0.0107 | |
| SRS | ORR | SRS | SRS | SRS | 3.41x10 -3 | 1.07x10 -3 | 4.48x10 -3 | |
| SRS | ORR | INEL | INEL | SRS | 8.32x10 -3 | 2.52x10 -3 | 0.0108 | |
| SRS | ORR | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 9.44x10 -3 | 2.85x10 -3 | 0.0123 | |
| LANL | LANL | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 2.25x10 -3 | 5.96x10 -4 | 2.85x10 -3 | |
| Assembly/Disassembly at Pantex (Continued) | LANL | LANL | ORR | ORR | SRS | 4.86x10 -3 | 1.40x10 -3 | 6.26x10 -3 |
| LANL | LANL | NTS | NTS | SRS | 3.06x10 -3 | 8.06x10 -4 | 3.87x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LANL | SRS | SRS | SRS | 5.58x10 -3 | 1.64x10 -3 | 7.22x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LANL | INEL | INEL | SRS | 3.98x10 -3 | 1.05x10 -3 | 5.03x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LANL | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 5.10x10 -3 | 1.38x10 -3 | 6.48x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 3.57x10 -3 | 1.03x10 -3 | 4.60x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | ORR | ORR | SRS | 4.65x10 -3 | 1.38x10 -3 | 6.03x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | NTS | NTS | SRS | 4.84x10 -3 | 1.37x10 -3 | 6.21x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | SRS | SRS | SRS | 4.95x10 -3 | 1.48x10 -3 | 6.43x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | INEL | INEL | SRS | 5.52x10 -3 | 1.57x10 -3 | 7.09x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LANL | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 6.64x10 -3 | 1.90x10 -3 | 8.54x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LLNL | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 5.92x10 -3 | 1.71x10 -3 | 7.63x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LLNL | ORR | ORR | SRS | 8.59x10 -3 | 2.54x10 -3 | 0.0111 | |
| LANL | LLNL | NTS | NTS | SRS | 4.76x10 -3 | 1.39x10 -3 | 6.15x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LLNL | SRS | SRS | SRS | 9.33x10 -3 | 2.74x10 -3 | 0.0121 | |
| LANL | LLNL | INEL | INEL | SRS | 5.57x10 -3 | 1.56x10 -3 | 7.13x10 -3 | |
| LANL | LLNL | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 5.69x10 -3 | 1.70x10 -3 | 7.39x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LLNL | Pantex | Pantex | SRS | 7.24x10 -3 | 2.15x10 -3 | 9.39x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LLNL | ORR | ORR | SRS | 8.39x10 -3 | 2.51x10 -3 | 0.0109 | |
| SRS | LLNL | NTS | NTS | SRS | 6.54x10 -3 | 1.96x10 -3 | 8.50x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LLNL | SRS | SRS | SRS | 8.71x10 -3 | 2.59x10 -3 | 0.0113 | |
| SRS | LLNL | INEL | INEL | SRS | 7.10x10 -3 | 2.09x10 -3 | 9.19x10 -3 | |
| SRS | LLNL | Hanford | Hanford | SRS | 7.23x10 -3 | 2.22x10 -3 | 9.45x10 -3 | |
The transportation accident model in RADTRAN assigns accident probabilities to a set of accident categories. For the truck and air analysis, the eight accident-severity categories defined in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Final Environmental Statement on the Transportation of Radioactive Material by Air and Other Modes (NUREG 0170, December 1977) were used. The least severe accident category (Category I) represents low magnitudes of crush force, accident-impact velocity, fire duration, or puncture-impact speed. The most severe category (Category VIII) represents a large crush force, high-impact velocity, high puncture-impact speed, an 88-kilometer [km] per hour (54.6-mile [mi] per hour) collision into the side of the vehicle and a 982-degree Celsius (°C) (1,800-degree Fahrenheit [°F]) fire lasting 1.5 hours to produce a release of the material (plutonium, HEU, or tritium). The release fractions for Category VIII accidents were conservatively estimated to be 0.1 for all types of materials analyzed.
To perform the risk calculations, distance and distance fractions for rural, suburban, and urban populations for each intersite route were estimated using the INTERSTAT routing code. INTERSTAT is part of the RADTRAN model. Although the distance fractions in the rural, suburban, and urban populations are slightly different for each route, among the routes considered, the average distance fractions for population distribution for rural, suburban, and urban were 78, 20, and 2 percent, respectively. Also included are nonradiological impacts due to air pollution and highway accidents. Fatalities from potential air pollution were estimated using 1.0x10 -7 cancer fatalities per urban kilometer. Highway accident fatalities were estimated from national statistics using 1.5x10 -8 rural, 3.7x10 -9 suburban, and 2.1x10 -9 urban for occupational risks per kilometer, and 5.3x10 -8 rural, 1.3x10 -8 suburban, and 7.5x10 -9 for nonoccupational risks per kilometer (SNL 1986a:167).
To estimate accident and accident-free impacts, the radiation dose from each shipment was converted to a risk factor by multiplying the occupational accident-free and accident dose by 4.0x10 -4 cancers per person-rem and the public accident-free and accident dose by 5.0x10 -4 cancers per person-rem (ICRP 1991a:22). The resultant annual health risks are presented as potential fatalities. The combined resultant health risks are presented as potential fatalities.
The estimated annual impacts for each alternative were derived by summing the health effects from individual routes. The potential sites for each alternative and the corresponding annual impacts are presented in table G.1-1.
1 Estimated fatalities per year. Source: RADTRAN model results.